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这是你自己的作业吧?还是得靠自己想的我只有一些问答,你倒是可以引用它们编作文自我保护免受自然灾害we all know that modern life ** safer than previous times.我们都知道,现代生活是比以前更安全的时代。 thus, when shocks such as hurricane katrina hit they are pretty "shocking".因此,当冲击,如卡特里娜飓风袭击,他们非常“令人震惊” 。 th** article below poses an interesting puzzle.本文下面提出一个有趣的谜。 based on survey evidence, people living in hurricane zones are under-investing in self protection against the anticipated new w**e of storms.根据调查的证据,人生活在飓风区正在投资的自我保护,防止预期的新一轮风暴。 why?为什么?possible answers:可能的答案:1. 1 。 they trust that ** will ex-post s**e them (ie moral hazard)他们相信,**将事后拯救他们(即道德风险)2. 2 。 they under-estimate the probability that a storm will strike th** year (if you believe in the law of small numbers then katrina should h**e ra**ed people's subjective assessment of a big storm th** year)他们低估的概率**风暴将在今年(如果您认为在法律中的小号码然后卡特里娜应提出人的主观评价的一个大风暴,今年)3. 3 。 they are r**k lovers他们是风险爱好者4. 4 。 to quote th** nyt articles, "it's like a psychological **sue — 'if i don't think about bad things, bad things won't happen.'**引用这一条款, “这就像一种心理问题- '如果我不想想坏事,不好的事情就不会发生。 " #4 here ** interesting can it be tested? “ # 4这里有趣的是不能进行测试?may 31, 2006 2006年5月31日as hurricane season looms, states aim to scare由于飓风季节织机,**目的来吓唬by abby goodnough由艾比goodnoughmiami, may 30 — convinced that tough tactics are needed, officials in hurricane-prone states are trumpeting dire warnings about the storm season that starts on thursday, preaching self-reliance and prodding the public to prepare early and well.北京时间5月30日-深信强硬的战术需要,官员在飓风频繁的**是可怕的警告鼓吹的飓风季节开始,星期四鼓吹自力更生和刺激市民提前做好准备和福祉。cities are circulating storm-preparation checkl**ts, counties are holding hurricane expositions at shopping malls and states are dangling carrots like free home inspections and tax-free storm supplies in hopes of conquering complacency.城市循环风暴编制清单,县举行飓风论述在商场和**都悬挂胡萝卜一样免费主页视察和免税风暴用品,希望能征服自满。but the main strategy, it seems, ** to scare the multitudes of people who emergency officials say remain blasé even after last year's record-breaking storm season.不过,最主要的策略,这似乎是为了吓唬人的众多紧急情况部官员说,谁留blasé即使在去年的创纪录的飓风季节。to persuade residents to heed evacuation orders, the florida div**ion of emergency management ** broadcasting public service announcements with recordings of 911 calls placed during hurricane ivan in 2004.说服居民听从疏散命令,佛罗里达州紧急事务管理部是广播公共服务通告与911电话录音放置在飓风伊万于2004年。"the roof has completely c**ed in on us," a woman cries as chilling music swells, only to be told that rescuers cannot come out during the storm. “屋顶已完全塌陷我们, ”作为一个女人哭肿寒蝉音乐,只能说,救援人员无法出来在风暴。speaking of the tactics, craig fugate, florida's emergency management director, said last week at a news conference in tallahassee, "we're going to use a sledgehammer."在谈到战术,克雷格fugate ,佛罗里达州的应急管理主任说,上周在新闻发布会上塔拉哈西, “我们将使用大锤。 ”th** s**e-yourselves approach comes after ** agencies were overwhelmed by pleas for help after last year's storms and strongly criticized as not responding swiftly or thoroughly enough to the public need.这拯救自己的办法后,**机构所压倒认罪后,为帮助去年的风暴和强烈批评不作出迅速反应或彻底足以市民的需要。 now, officials h**e said repeatedly, only the elderly, the poor and the d**abled should count on the ** to help them escape a hurricane or endure its immediate aftermath.现在,官员们一再表示,只有老年人,穷人和残疾人应当依靠**帮助他们摆脱飓风或承受其直接后果。m**s**sippi, where more than 200 residents died in hurricane katrina, unrolled a "stay alert. stay alive" hurricane awareness campaign in april.密西西比,其中超过200人死于卡特里娜飓风,打开了“保持警觉。活下去”飓风宣传活动在4月。 state officials told residents what to pack in a "go-kit" for evacuating (flashlight, radio, nonelectric can opener) and, like many others, commanded them to stockpile at least three days' worth of water and food.**工作人员告诉居民行装在“走出去包”的撤离(手电筒,收音机,非电开罐器)和许多其他**一样,指挥他们储存至少3天的水和食物。horry county, sc, home to myrtle beach, held a hurricane exposition last month and ** giving similar presentations at kiwan** clubs and homeowners associations.霍里县,美国南卡罗来纳,回家默特尔比奇,举行了一次飓风博览会上个月给予类似介绍基瓦尼斯俱乐部和房主协会。"the big shortfall ** complacency with the community," said randall webster, director of horry county emergency management. “最大的不足是自满与社会, ”韦伯斯特说,兰德尔,主任霍里县应急管理。 "our main theme **, take interest as an individual and make preparations." “我们的主要议题是,采取利益作为个人和作准备。 ”but will it work?但是,可以吗? emergency management officials groaned th** month at a poll by mason-dixon polling and research inc., which found that of 1,100 adults along the atlantic and gulf coasts, 83 percent had taken no steps to fortify their homes th** year, 68 percent had no hurricane survival kits and 60 percent had no family d**aster plan.紧急情况管理官员呻吟本月调查的梅森,迪克逊投票和研究,该公司发现,在1100年成人沿大西洋和海湾海岸,百分之八十三没有采取任何步骤来巩固自己的家园,今年百分之六十八没有飓风生存包和百分之六十没有家庭救灾计划。"i can't rightfully say i see any increased sense of people getting ready," said larry g**pert, emergency management director in hill**orough county, fla., home to tampa. “我不能正确地说,我看不到任何增加责任感的人正准备说, ”拉里g**pert ,应急管理主任在希尔斯伯勒县,佛罗里达州坦帕回家。 "it's like a psychological **sue — 'if i don't think about bad things, bad things won't happen.' “这就像一种心理问题- '如果我不想想坏事,不好的事情就不会发生。 " “in nags head, nc, jimmy austin, a former commercial f**herman who now operates h** own seafood market, said he was unfazed by th** year's predictions, some of which suggest that the carolinas will be especially hard hit.在nags头,数控,吉米奥斯汀前商业渔民谁现在经营自己的水产品市场,说他担心今年的预测,其中一些建议,龙卷风将特别沉重的打击。 he keeps h** insurance current, mr. austin said, but sees no need for special precautions.他继续他的保险目前,奥斯汀先生说,但认为没有必要特别预防措施。"i don't pay these things a whole lot of mind," said mr. austin, 69, a native of the outer banks. “我不支付这些事情一大堆铭记先生说: ”奥斯汀, 69岁,是土生土长的外银行。 "because they say so doesn't mean it's going to happen that way." “因为他们这样说并不意味着它会发生这种方式。 ”in galveston, tex., keith patterson, a resident there for 30 years, d**m**sed the urgency of a hurricane survival kit on thursday.加尔维斯敦,德州,基思帕特森的居民有30年,开除的紧迫性,飓风生存包星期四。 no use worrying about a hurricane until it ** near, he said.没有用担心飓风直到不久,他说。"when one ** coming, i'll make preparations," said mr. patterson, 68, a retired purchasing clerk. “当一个人的到来,我会做好准备, ”帕特森先生说, 68岁,退休采购办事员。 "i'll get what i h**e to get then." “我会做什么我已经得到了。 ”in florida, the second annual tax holiday on hurricane supplies, from may 21 through june 1, has not drawn an overwhelming response, several store representatives said.在佛罗里达州,第二次年度免税飓风用品,从5月21日通过6月1日,还没有引起大的反应,一些商店的代表说。 but at least one store, the lowe's in south fort myers, was selling more generators than barbecue grills last week, said john sandford, operations manager there.但至少有一个商店, lowe 's的在南非迈尔斯堡,出售更多的发电机比烧烤炉上周表示,美国桑福德,业务经理。at a home depot, brenda and jerry dyche of south fort myers were shopping for a generator last wednesday.在home depot的,布兰达威尔和杰里dyche南迈尔斯堡是购买一台发电机上周三。 with that and a new roof, they said, they had no reason to flee.有了这一点,一个新的屋顶,他们说,他们没有理由逃离。"we'd just as soon be in our house," mr. dyche said. “我们只希望尽快在我们的房子, ” dyche先生说。 "where are we going to go? i-75 ** a pa**ng lot by the time they evacuate everybody." “我们在何处去?我- 75是一个停车场的时候,他们每个人都撤离。 ”likew**e, ronda burke, who did not go inland last year to **oid hurricane rita but stayed on south padre **land, tex., to watch over her new health food cafe, naturally's, said she would probably do the same th** year if necessary.同样,隆达伯克,谁没有去内陆去年以避免丽塔飓风,但仍对南帕德雷岛,德州,看她的新的保健食品咖啡馆,自然的,她说可能会做同样的,今年如果有必要。"we feel about our store like you feel about a person," said ms. burke, whose hu**and took their two young children to higher ground as hurricane rita neared the texas coast (and eventually came ashore far from south padre **land). “我们觉得我们的店像您觉得一个人说, ”伯克女士,她的丈夫在他们的两个孩子到地势较高的飓风丽塔逼近德州海岸(并最终登陆远离南帕德雷岛) 。 "we'd probably ride it out again." “我们可能会再次乘坐它。 ”meanwhile, ** agencies are preparing more thoroughly than ever, stockpiling water and food, improving communication technology and outfitting supply trucks with global positioning systems.与此同时,**机构正准备比以往任何时候都更彻底,储存水和食物,改善通信技术和装备供应卡车与全球定位系统。hattie**urg, m**s., ** buying $4 million worth of generators for its public buildings and water system.哈蒂斯堡,小姐,是购买价值四百万元的发电机,其公共建筑和供水系统。 broward county, fla., bought a $500,000 command post vehicle to shuttle emergency managers among cr**** spots.布劳沃德县,佛罗里达州买了$ 500000指挥所车辆接送紧急情况管理人员之间的危机点。 many areas will offer more hurricane shelters th** year, though officials like herminio lorenzo, the miami-dade county fire chief, are portraying them bleakly to encourage people to make their own plans.许多地区将提供更多的飓风避难所今年,尽管官员像埃米尼奥洛伦索,迈阿密戴德县消防局长,是描绘他们bleakly ,以鼓励人们作出自己的计划。"the very last place you would want to go ** a red cross shelter," mr. lorenzo said last week at a community hurricane preparation meeting. “最后,你会想要去的是一个红十字会住房, ” lorenzo先生说,上周在社区飓风筹备会议。 "you're so close to the people sleeping next to you that you can feel the hair of their mustache on the side of your head." “你是如此接近的人睡在你旁边,你可以感受到他们的胡子头发的一方你的头。 ”some communities are coaxing the public to prepare in a piecemeal way, like s**ing old milk jugs as emergency water containers and buying one extra can of food on every grocery trip.一些社区哄市民准备在零敲碎打的方式,如储蓄老奶壶紧急装水的容器和购买一个额外的食物可以在每一个杂货店访问。 escambia county, fla., ** publ**hing weekly shopping l**ts to try to get residents to stock up little by little.埃斯坎比亚县,佛罗里达州,是发布每周的购物清单,以试图让居民股票上涨一点点。 martiza vazquez of miami said that approach had made preparing more manageable. martiza巴斯克斯说,在迈阿密的做法提出了编制更便于管理。"every time i go to the supermarket i buy four or five cans of tuna or soup or whatever," ms. vazquez, 37, said. “每次去超市买四,五罐金枪鱼或汤或任何”维斯奎兹女士, 37岁,说。 "i h**e a checkl**t that came with the ** the other day, and i am using that to figure out how much ** enough." “我有一个清单附带了其他的一天,我使用的是找出多少是不够的。 ”waiting for a taxi to take her to her job at mcdonald's, chan**ia williams of galveston, who makes $5.75 an hour, laughed at the notion of buying prov**ions to sock away.等待出租车送她去她的工作在麦当劳, chan**ia威廉姆斯的加尔维斯顿,谁使5.75美元一个小时,笑的概念,规定购买袜子了。"we got food, but i got none s**ed," said ms. williams, 17, the single parent of a 2-year-old, who lives in public housing. “我们打的粮食,但我没有保存说, ” williams女士, 17岁,单亲一个2岁,谁住在公共房屋。ms. williams said she would h**e to sacrifice buying diapers and baby clothes to afford a hurricane survival kit. williams女士说,她将不得不牺牲购买尿布和婴儿衣服买不起飓风生存套件。still, ms. williams, who evacuated on a bus as hurricane rita neared, said she wanted to prepare, echoing others who had frightening experiences last year.不过, williams女士,谁疏散巴士上的飓风丽塔逼近,说她要准备,其他人谁呼应了可怕的经验去年。 wayne p. sallade, emergency management director in charlotte county, fla., which was devastated by hurricane charley in 2004, said the mason-dixon poll numbers on hurricane preparation were skewed by people in states that had not had hurricanes recently.韦恩体育sallade ,应急管理主任夏洛特县,佛罗里达州,这是遭受飓风查理在2004年说,梅森,迪克森民调数字飓风准备的人被扭曲的**中没有飓风最近。"you talk to people in cities here, and there's an absolute fever for **rmation," mr. sallade said. “你跟人在城市里在这里,有一个绝对发烧的信息, ”先生sallade说。that ** also true in new orleans and along the m**s**sippi coast, where post-hurricane katrina anxiety has compelled many to prepare diligently th** year.这也是真正的在新奥尔良和密西西比州海岸沿线,其中后焦虑卡特里娜飓风已迫使许多准备今年勤奋。but in houston, joe laud, spokesman for the city's emergency center, said only 1,000 people with special needs had reg**tered for public transportation to pick them up in an evacuation.但是,在休斯顿,乔劳德发言人城市的急救中心说,只有1000人有特殊需要的已登记的公共交通工具接他们时,在疏散人员。 during hurricane rita, mr. laud said, 25,000 such residents needed help evacuating.在飓风丽塔先生,劳德说, 2.5万居民需要帮助,例如撤离。gov. jeb bush of florida, at h** annual hurricane conference th** month in fort lauderdale, sourly recalled the chaos after hurricane wilma last year, where throngs of residents lined up for free emergency supplies that quickly ran out.佛州州长杰布布什在佛罗里达州,飓风在其年度会议本月底在劳德代尔堡,坏心眼地回顾了混乱后,飓风威尔玛去年,成群的居民在排队等候免费紧急救援物资的迅速失控。"it makes it a lot harder when people line up in their lexuses or mercedeses to get ice and water at a public d**tribution site when the publix ** open a block away," “这让很多人难以排队时,在其lexuses或mercedeses让冰和水的公共分配的网站时, publix开放块了, ”mr. bush said.布什说。as h** audience of emergency workers applauded, he added, "i don't know about you, but it sure made me feel better to get that off my chest."作为他的听众的紧急救援人员鼓掌,他补充说, “我不知道你,但请务必让我觉得能够更好地得到了我的胸口说。 ” 20210311