the financial cr**** currently unfolding in the us ** clearly the worst since the worldwar ii.whether it will lead to a mild or severe recession will depend on how well the us** will manage the cr****.from the very beginning,in our base scenario,weh**e factored in our expectations that the us ** would react relatively quicklyto contain the domino effect.the validity of such expectation and hence our basescenario for the us and indeed the rest of the world including china was he**ilyquestioned immediately after lehman going bust.but it seems that the violent reactionby the markets to lehman and aig cases has made the us ** fully aware of ther**k that if it doesn’t act dec**ively and quickly,the us would surely enter a severerecession and bringing down the rest of the world with it. 20210311