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could recession spread from america?萧条会从美国蔓延开来吗？“decoupling” ** the source of a great deal of controversy. econom**ts argue about whether or not emerging economies will follow america into recession. the most pessim**tic claim that as economies h**e become more intertwined through trade and finance, th** should make business cycles more synchron**ed, not less. the slide in emerging stock markets on wall street’s coat-tails appears to endorse their view. yet recent data suggest decoupling ** no myth. indeed, it may yet s**e the world economy.“脱钩“是当个引发了相当多争议的话题。经济学家们正在就新兴经济体是否会步美国的后尘走上衰退之路辩论不休。其中最悲观的看法是随着经济体之间通过贸易与金融的结合日趋紧密，全球经济波动的周期将更趋向于同步。新兴股市紧随华尔街大幅下跌似乎印证了这一观点。但是近期的数据表明脱钩一说并非空穴来风，事实上这一进程还有望在将来挽救世界经济。decoupling does not mean that an american recession will h**e no impact on developing countries. that would be daft. the point ** that their gdp-growth rates will slow by much less than in previous american downturns. most enjoyed strong growth during the fourth quarter of last year, and some speeded up, even as america’s economy ground to a virtual halt and its non-oil imports fell.如果说脱钩意味着发生在美国的萧条不会令发展**家遭受池鱼之殃，这完全是无稽之谈。关键在于这些**的gdp增幅受到的影响较之以往会小得多。它们之中的绝大多数去年第四季度的增长势头强劲，有一些甚至在加速增长，尽管在此同时美国经济几乎完全停滞不前，除原油以外的进口全面下降。one reason ** that while exports to america h**e stumbled, those to other emerging economies h**e surged (see chart 1). china’s growth in exports to america slowed to only 5% (in dollar terms) in the year to january, but exports to brazil, india and russia were up by more than 60%, and those to oil exporters by 45%. half of china’s exports now go to other emerging economies. likew**e, south korea's exports to the united states tumbled by 20% in the year to february, but its total exports rose by 20%, thanks to trade with other developing nations.原因之一就是在对美出口步伐放缓的同时，这些**对其他新兴经济体的出口有了长足增长.今年一月份**对美出口的增幅仅为5%（以美元计算），但对巴西、印度和俄罗斯的出口额增加了60%以上，而对石油输出国的出口增长为45%。现在对其他新兴经济体的出口占到了**出口总额的的半壁江山。同样，今年一到二月韩国对美出口下降了20%，但其出口总量反而增加了20%，这全要拜与其他发展**家贸易之赐。a second supporting factor ** that in many emerging markets domestic consumption and investment quickened during 2007. their consumer spending rose almost three times as fast as in the developed world. investment seems to be holding up even better: according to h**c real capital spending rose by a staggering 17% in emerging economies last year, compared with only 1.2% in rich economies.第二个因素就是很多新兴市场的国内消费与投资在2007年加速了。这些**消费支出的上扬速度几乎是发达**的三倍，投资方面的表现则更为突出：据汇丰银行统计，去年新兴经济体实际资本支出增长率达到了惊人的17%，而在发达**这一数字仅为1.2% 。sceptics argue that much of th** investment, especially in china, ** in the export sector and so will collapse as sales to america weaken. but less than 15% of china’s investment ** linked to exports. over half ** in infrastructure and property. it ** not just china that ** building power plants, roads and railways; a large chunk of the gulf’spetrodollars are also being spent on gleaming skyscrapers and new airports. mexico, brazil and russia h**e also launched big infrastructure projects that will take years to complete.对此抱有怀疑态度的人会声称这些投资中的大部分，尤其是**的投资，集中在出口领域，结果会随着对美出口的减退化为乌有。但是实际上**的投资中与出口相关联的不到15%。过半的资金都投在了基建与地产上面。而且不是只有**在兴建电站、公路和铁路；海湾**的石油美元也有很大一部分变成了光鲜的摩天楼和崭新的机场。墨西哥、巴西和俄罗斯同样上马了为期数年的大型基础建设项目。the four biggest emerging economies, which accounted for two-fifths of global gdp growth last year, are the least dependent on the united states: exports to america account for just 8% of china’s gdp, 4% of india’s, 3% of brazil’s and 1% of russia’s. over 95% of china’s growth of 11.2% in the year to the fourth quarter came from domestic demand. china’s growth ** widely expected to slow th** year but to a still bo**terous 9-10%.新兴经济体中的四强贡献了去年全球gdp增长的五分之二，而它们正是同类之中对美国依赖最小的：对美出口只**国gdp的8%，印度gdp的3%，巴西gdp的3%和俄罗斯gdp的1%。**去年到第四季度为止所取得的11.2%的增长中有95%以上来自于内需。普遍预期**今年的增长势头会放慢，但仍能达到堪称活跃的9-10%。american downturns h**e often caused the prices of oil and other raw materials to slump, but th** time china’s surging demand ** propping up prices and fuelling booms in brazil, russia and the middle east. brazil’s exports jumped by 26% in the year to february. in turn, if prices stay strong, so will china’s exports to commodity-producing countries. a sharp slowdown in china would hurt them more than an american recession will.美国的经济衰退过去通常会造成原油和其他原材料价格低迷，但如今来自**的飞速增加的需求正在拉高油价，助长了巴西、俄罗斯和中东的经济繁荣。巴西今年一至二月的出口猛增了26%。相应的，如果原料价格居高不下，**对原材料生产国的强劲出口势头也就能保持下来。对这些**来说，比起美国的萧条来，**的经济急刹车造成的伤害还要严重一些。the popular argument that business cycles should become more synchron**ed in a global**ed world rests on an out-dated impression that poor countries mainly export to rich ones. instead, emerging economies’ trade with each other has r**en faster and now accounts for over half of their total exports. emerging markets as a group now export more to china than to the united states (see chart 2).许多人做出全球化的世界里的经济周期性波动会趋向同步这一判断，其实是基于一个过时的印象，即穷国的出口主要流向富国。实际上新兴经济体之间的贸易增长更为迅速，现在已经达到了它们总出口额的一半以上。如果把新兴市场视为一个整体，那么它对**的出口已经超过了对美国的出口.some contend that th** mainly reflects imports of intermediate goods into china for assembly; the fin**hed goods are then exported to america and so will be hurt by slower growth. there ** some truth to th**, although asian exports to china are increasingly driven by china’s own domestic demand.有人会辩解说这主要是**进口中间产品用于组装的体现，最后的制成品还是要销往美国，从而会受不景气的市场拖累。这在某种程度上是事实，不过亚洲的对华出口正日益为**的内需所驱动。another reason why global**ation and decoupling can co-ex**t ** that opening up economies has not only boosted poor countries’ trade, it has also spurred their productivity growth and hence domestic incomes and spending.全球化与脱钩进程能并行不悖的另一个原因，就是经济上的开放在繁荣穷国的贸易的同时也促使他们提高劳动生产率，于是国民收入与消费便随之水涨船高。a severe recession in america could still h**e a nasty impact on the developing world if commodity prices collapsed and if it caused stockmarkets to fall more steeply, depressing global consumer and business confidence. a sharper fall in the dollar could also further squeeze emerging economies’ exports.当然，如果美国的严重衰退引发原材料价格**，或是带动股市进一步暴跌打击全球消费者与投资人的信心，发展**家肯定会损失惨重。美元加速贬值也会导致新兴经济体的出口进一步缩水。but for perhaps the first time ever, developing countries would be able to make full use of monetary and f**cal policy to cushion their economies. in the past, when they were net foreign borrowers, capital inflows tended to dry up during global downturns as foreign investors shunned r**ky assets. th** forced **s to ra**e interest rates and tighten f**cal policy. economies with large external deficits are still vulnerable, but most emerging economies now h**e a current-account surplus and large foreign reserves; many h**e a budget surplus or are close to balance, le**ing ample room for a f**cal stimulus if necessary.但是，发展**家将会得以充分利用货币与财政政策呵护他们的经济，这很可能是前所未有的。过去它们是净债务国，在全球衰退来临时外国投资者对风险资产回避会造成这些**的资金来源枯竭，迫使它们的**提高利率并实行紧缩财政政策。现在那些背负高额对外赤字的经济体在这方面仍然很脆弱，但是大部分新兴经济体目前都拥有经常账户盈余和巨额外汇储备；其中不少还有预算结余，或者至少收支基本相抵，这样就为在必要情况下采取财政激励政策留下了足够的空间。perhaps the best support for decoupling comes from america itself. fourth-quarter profits of big companies, such as coca-cola, ibm and dupont, were better than expected as strong sales growth in emerging markets offset a sharp slowdown at home. bits of american business are r**ing above their own economy. with luck, the world economy can r**e above america’s.也许支持脱钩进程最好的实例来自美国国内。像可口可乐、ibm和杜邦这样的大公司第四季度的利润好于预期，就是以在新兴市场良好的销售势头弥补了本土市场的疲软。美国经济中的一部分已经走到了其他部分的前面。如果一切顺利的话，世界经济也将同样走到美国经济的前面。 20210311